Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/29-10/1 in parens):
Jim Martin (D): 45 (44)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 47 (45)
Allen Buckley (L): 5 (-)
Undecided: 3 (7)
(MoE: ±4%)
Hoo-boy. Poll after poll keeps telling us that this is an incredibly tight race. Martin currently is sitting at 26% of the white vote (and 86% of the African-American vote) — and, as Kos writes, if he can nudge that up to 30%, he’ll be in a good position.
As fitchfan wrote in the diaries, Martin out-raised Chambliss in the third quarter by $1.3 million to $1.1 million, but he ended September with only $93K left in the bank. If you haven’t yet done so, please consider lending Jim Martin a hand over at SSP’s Actblue page. Let’s see if we can hit 100 donors for Jim soon.
…all these polls were taken before the influx of DSCC cash. Martin should really hit the airwaves even harder and might nudge up a couple points in the coming few weeks from this alone. Combine that momentum with an unprecedented Democratic turnout and I’m feeling confident that Martin can edge out Chambliss.
The poll had AA turnout at only 27 percent, which according to recent numbers in a pretty low estimate. If we can bump it up to 30 percent or more and turn that 86 percent support to the 90 plus that Obama is getting it will really turn this thing in Martin’s favor.
African American turnout is going to be higher than most pollsters are expecting and I think that should be enough for Martin to pull out a win.